USOil Slides Despite Upbeat Chinese Data & Improved IMF Outlook
USOil Analysis
The commodity runs its second negative week and will have a hard time avoiding a losing month, as investors brace for the central bank bonanza and other events. Monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected on Thursday, with US Fed kicking things of tomorrow.
Markets price-in another downshift in the pace of tightening by the Fed, with a smaller 25 basis points rate increase, but seem to grow weary of any hawkish signals. Policy makers have not pushed back against that projection, but have maintained a clearly hawkish stance and the last dot-plot suggests a higher terminal rate (median of 5.1%) than the one markets anticipate. [1]
USOil extends its losses today as the European session gets underway and this keeps it exposed to the broader 72.43-70.06 region. However, a strong catalyst would be needed for a test and sustained weakness below this area continues to look difficult.
On the other hand, China's reopening is supportive and todays data showed that the manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since September, with a PMI print of 50.1 for December. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global GDP forecast to 2.9%, from 2.7% previously, although this is still lower than the 3.4% estimated growth of the previous year. [2]
More to it, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to oversold levels, which along with the daily Ichimoku Cloud can contain the drop. As such, we can see another push towards 84.70, but we are still cautious for further advance towards and beyond 90.36.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
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