The Flat Yield Curve Almost Compels a Balance Sheet Runoff

10-2 Treasury Yield Spread

The 10-2 yield curve will be a concern for the Fed. Since April 2021 it has been flattening considerably (blue square area). The Fed has indicated three rate hikes for 2022, and the market sees a distinct possibility for a fourth. However, the Fed (and central banks in general) tend to operate on the short-term side of the yield curve. This means that, in isolation, these rate hikes are likely to flatten the yield curve even further.


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Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

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