Oil Prices Rise on Escalating Red Sea Tensions

  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

USOIl Analysis

The US Central Command said it sank three boats of "Iranian-backed Houthi small boats" in the Red Sea on Sunday, for attacking MAERSK HANGZHOU container ship [1], noting that there have been more than twenty attacks by Houthis since November 19 [2]. Iran meanwhile has reportedly sent a warship into the Red Sea, adding to the tense situation. [3]

This is a critical waterway for global trade and the entry point to the Suez Canal, with many oil and shipping giants like BP and Maersk suspending transit, due to the escalating hostilities. According to S&P Global, 12% of global trade passes through the Suez Canal, while an average of 7.9 million barrels/day of crude oil and refined products sailed through it during the first 11 months of 2023. [4]

USOIL trades higher today on the latest news, as supply disruptions work in its favor, while OPEC+ had recently announced further output cuts. The commodity has the opportunity for further rebound and daily closes above the EMA200 (74.70-80) could pause the bearish bias. However, the upside contains multiple roadblocks and sustained recovery does not look easy at this stage.

USOil comes from a losing quarter as weak China recovery, demand fears, strong non-OPEC production, transition way form fossil fuels and other factors weigh. It remains in a precarious position and below the EMA200 it is in risk of renewed pressure towards 67.69, although a breach of the 2023 lows (63.63) has a higher degree of difficulty.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 02 Jan 2024 https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1741381969936834951

2

Retrieved 02 Jan 2024 https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1741259817602429357

3

Retrieved 02 Jan 2024 https://en.irna.ir/news/85340641/Iran-s-Alborz-warship-passes-Bab-el-Mandeb-Strait-enters-Red

4

Retrieved 14 Jul 2024 https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/122123-factbox-seaborne-trade-reroutes-away-from-red-sea-over-houthi-attacks

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