Oil bid into US session as OPEC looks to exempt Russia from supply increase
The daily FXCM Brent CFD, UKOil, is trading in its strength zone between the upper blue and red bands. It has underlying solid momentum with its stochastic comfortably above 80 (blue rectangle). The longer the oscillator holds current levels, the more bullish the pressure.
The hourly chart on the right shows UKOils momentum oscillator heading up and that its trend-following EMAs are positive (red ellipses). The short-term momentum will be price supportive if they develop angle and separation whilst the stochastic moves towards the blue arrow.
A report is circulating that some OPEC members are looking at exempting Russia from any agreement to boost supply targets. Russia is lagging behind its output quota following imposed sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine. If Russia is exempted, other members will need to fill the gap.
OPEC+ are due to meet on Thursday to approve a planned increase in production by 432K barrels/day.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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