FXCM Market Talk – Your Trading and Finance Podcast (Ep. 60)

060 - Market and central banks at odds

Fed raised by 50bps. Less aggressive, but higher TR upped to 5.1 (4.6). Fed chair was hawkish.

ECB even more hawkish than Fed. 50bps ongoing and QT announced. Hawkish ECB is a more convincing case — more ground to cover, but more difficult to deliver because of the fractious nature of the bank.

BoE delivered 50 bps and was the least hawkish of the three. There was a three-way split: 0, 50bps, 75bps.

There is a disconnect between the banks and the market. Market's expect cuts in H2 2023. Fed dismisses this.

Data is confusing and ambiguous. Services PMI beat to the upside, but industrial production and retail sales were both down (weak). CPI also showed signs of moderating.

This week:

BoJ — some reports suggesting an announcement regarding the 2% inflation target. CPI out as well (Fri).

CPI Canada - Wed.

US PCE data on Friday. May take lead from CPI and moderate.

Final GDP on Thurs q/q 2.9% (US), -0.2% (UK).

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

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