Ethereum Reclaims Key Tech Levels
ETH/USD Analysis
The pace of job creation in the United States continued its deceleration in December, with the addition of 223,000 payrolls and average hourly earnings eased to 4.6% y/y, from 4.8% previously, as Friday's data showed. Furthermore, the services sector contracted for the first time in more than two years, while factory orders declined by the most in a similar period of time.
These economic releases renewed market hopes that the Fed will not hike by as much as it December projections imply. CME's FedWatch Tools assigns the highest probability to rates peaking at 5.0% and also sees rate cuts in the second half of 2023. [1]
This optimism for a Fed pivot filters through to this week and works against the greenback, allowing ETH/USD to return above the key 38.2% Fibonacci of the of the November high/low decline. This puts the upper border of the daily Ichimoku Cloud in its crosshair (at around 1,370), but the upside looks unhospitable and 1,445 like a toll order.
Fed officials however are quite hawkish, expecting a higher median terminal 5.1% [2], while the accounts of the last policy meeting revealed that "no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023". [3]
Moreover, ETH/USD had rejected the key 38.2% Fibonacci level last month and the relative Strength Index has reached the most overbought levels in two years. As such we can see renewed pressure and a move back below the EMA200 (1,245), although it may be early for sustained weakness below the December lows (1,148).
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 09 Jan 2023 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html | |
| Retrieved 09 Jan 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20211215.htm | |
| Retrieved 16 May 2026 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20221214.pdf |
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