Two series released yesterday came in weaker than expected. This raises the fear that the US is already in recession.
Industrial production missed forecast, printing at -0.7% m/m (-0.1% m/m -forecast) and lower than the previous (and revised lower number) of -0.6% m/m.
This came on the back of lower retail sales. Core retail sales (retail sales less autos), came in at -1.1% m/m (-0.5% - forecast), compared with last month's -0.6% m/m.
The top chart shows US industrial production y/y and the bottom chart shows US retail sales adjusted for inflation (rr). Both series show down trends, with retail sales's downside momentum waning. However, rr shows a -0.5 contraction y/y.
The data implies a possible recession scenario. The Fed pivot is still a distinct possibility.
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.