Central Bank Guidance Has Become a Messy Affair
Major central banks have implemented aggressive rate-hike cycles in order to combat surging inflation, but fears of recession make their job difficult and their forward guidance unclear
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Major central banks have implemented aggressive rate-hike cycles in order to combat surging inflation, but fears of recession make their job difficult and their forward guidance unclear
The world of finance is composed of assets, markets and participants. It's the dialogue between each facet that facilitates the process of price discovery. However, without base levels of liquidity and participation, efficient asset pricing grinds to a halt. Read on to learn more about illiquid assets and what they mean to active traders and investors. What Is An Illiquid Asset? An illiquid asset is a good or service that…
The BoE delivered its biggest hike in twenty-seven years today, but moderated its guidance, while projecting recession and higher inflation ahead
Fed officials start preparing market for further rate hikes.
The RBA delivered its fourth straight rate hike, but changed its rhetoric in a way that could be a precursor of more moderate moves ahead, sending AUD/USD lower
The 10-yr real rate is just 7bps from 0 (black line chart), and the 5-yr is 7bps below 0 (red line chart). Given that interest rates are included in the denominator of the time value of money, this deterioration is supportive of present values. I.e. it is acting against the whims and desires of the Fed's stated intention of controlling inflation.
The Fed hiked rates by 75bps and cancelled forward guidance. GDP indicates a technical recession, and US inflation is still ticking at the highest level in 40 years. The Eurozone shows resilience but with savage inflation on its side of the pond. This week the BoE and RBA will hike rates, but there is scope for surprises. NFP Friday has a forecast of 250K jobs created in July. Yet, the…
The US economy posted second back-to-back quarterly negative GDP, according to the preliminary data that were just released, against expectations for marginal growth
The US central bank delivered another 75 basis point rate increase on Wednesday, but offered no guidance, while reiterating its commitment to bring inflation down and brushing off recession fears
The household sector is showing weakness from numerous economic indicators.
The central bank raised rates for the first time in eleven years today, opting for a bolder 50 basis points, against its previous forwards guidance for a more modest move
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