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The Governor said yesterday that the central bank is now closer to peak rates, weighing on the pair, amidst broader USD demand
The Bank of Canada held rates at 5.0% on Wednesday, but the pair was little changed, maintaining its positive tilt ahead of the 2023 high
The spread between the US 10-year bond and 10-year Japanese Government bonds (JGBs) is a key driver of the USDJPY.
The pair slumped to 2023 lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained rates at 4.1% yesterday, but catches a breath today as AU Q2 GDP came in better than expected
The pair extends this month’s fall and threatens critical support, amidst broader USD strength and the contraction of the UK’s services sector in August
The US 10-year real rate is a key driver of FXCM’s USDOLLAR. The two instruments have a robust positive correlation coefficient of 79%, with the USDOLLAR generally tracking the real rate.
Friday saw Canadian GDP print at -0.2% m/m compared with the previous number of 0.2% m/m. The manufacturing PMI also came in lower at 48 compared with the previous 49.6. At the same time, Canadian unemployment is drifting higher to 5.5%. In response, the Canadian 2-year note decline by 2.02% on Friday.
The pair returned to profits in August and hit 2023 highs last week, sustaining the upside bias after the US data dump, which reinforced market view that the Fed is done hiking
The pair got a boost on Wednesday from poor US jobs data, but slides today after Australian data, which showed that inflation decelerated further in July
USDOLLAR short-term analysis.
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