AUD/USD Tries to Regain its Composure after the Post-RBA Hold 2023 Low
The pair slumped to 2023 lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained rates at 4.1% yesterday, but catches a breath today as AU Q2 GDP came in better than expected
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The pair slumped to 2023 lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained rates at 4.1% yesterday, but catches a breath today as AU Q2 GDP came in better than expected
The pair extends this month’s fall and threatens critical support, amidst broader USD strength and the contraction of the UK’s services sector in August
The US 10-year real rate is a key driver of FXCM’s USDOLLAR. The two instruments have a robust positive correlation coefficient of 79%, with the USDOLLAR generally tracking the real rate.
Friday saw Canadian GDP print at -0.2% m/m compared with the previous number of 0.2% m/m. The manufacturing PMI also came in lower at 48 compared with the previous 49.6. At the same time, Canadian unemployment is drifting higher to 5.5%. In response, the Canadian 2-year note decline by 2.02% on Friday.
The pair returned to profits in August and hit 2023 highs last week, sustaining the upside bias after the US data dump, which reinforced market view that the Fed is done hiking
The pair got a boost on Wednesday from poor US jobs data, but slides today after Australian data, which showed that inflation decelerated further in July
USDOLLAR short-term analysis.
The pair tries to stop its six-week losing streak and defend the 200 Days EMA, but key upcoming data points can determine the next leg of the move
The US 10-year yield is trading near 4.25%, at levels last seen at the end of 2022. The underlying driver is a strong US economy and the sense that the Fed will leave rates “higher for longer.” The strong US-10 year is having an impact on the spread between the US and Canadian 10-year bonds.
The pair maintains its upside bias around the September 2022 interventions levels, after the Jackson Hole symposium speeches, awaiting key US economic data later in the week
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