Gold short-term analysis – 04 April 2023
The gold daily chart has a strong inverse correlation to the USDOLLAR. The correlation coefficient between the two is a hardy -93%. I.e., gold is benefitting as the greenback comes under pressure.
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The gold daily chart has a strong inverse correlation to the USDOLLAR. The correlation coefficient between the two is a hardy -93%. I.e., gold is benefitting as the greenback comes under pressure.
Oil jumped after Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries, in a surprise move, announced production cuts in excess of one million barrels/day
The pair slides after factory activity in China eased and heads towards the conclusion of a mixed month, awaiting today’s UC PCE inflation update
The commodity runs its second positive week, rebounding from its recent plunge as sentiment improves, but markets now brace for Friday’s US PCE inflation update
The commodity made a strong start of the week, as fears over the health of the financial system ebbed, but faces pressure today, as markets brace for the Fed’s policy decision
Gold’s daily candlesticks are trading in their bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. The red Bollinger bands have expanded due to an increase in volatility. The longer the precious metal remains in this channel, the greater the likelihood of further price appreciation.
Gold is generally inversely correlated to the US 10-year real rate. There may be short periods when they sync up positively, but these are rare. The current correlation coefficient is -59%.
USOil’s daily chart is trading in its bearish channel between the lower blue and red bands. The red Bollinger bands are moving in opposite directions as volatility has increased. The longer it maintains this channel the more pressure will be applied to the USOil price.
The last three trading sessions has seen the US 02-year decline from 5.076% to 4.055%. Today’s trading is especially frenetic after weekended endeavours by regulators to stave off a bank run and prevent contagion from the SVB failure. Over the same period money has rotated into gold as a safe haven.
USOIL was brought down by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony, which reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative, but finds some reprieve by the drop in US stockpiles
Copper has charted a series of higher troughs (HT), followed by higher peaks (HP). This puts the base metal into uptrend. Copper has found support at the 50% retracement, and may chart the next higher trough (HT?) in the series.
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