Page 3 of 22
Gold’s daily candlesticks are trading in their bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. The red Bollinger bands have expanded due to an increase in volatility. The longer the precious metal remains in this channel, the greater the likelihood of further price appreciation.
Gold is generally inversely correlated to the US 10-year real rate. There may be short periods when they sync up positively, but these are rare. The current correlation coefficient is -59%.
USOil’s daily chart is trading in its bearish channel between the lower blue and red bands. The red Bollinger bands are moving in opposite directions as volatility has increased. The longer it maintains this channel the more pressure will be applied to the USOil price.
The last three trading sessions has seen the US 02-year decline from 5.076% to 4.055%. Today’s trading is especially frenetic after weekended endeavours by regulators to stave off a bank run and prevent contagion from the SVB failure. Over the same period money has rotated into gold as a safe haven.
USOIL was brought down by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony, which reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative, but finds some reprieve by the drop in US stockpiles
Copper has charted a series of higher troughs (HT), followed by higher peaks (HP). This puts the base metal into uptrend. Copper has found support at the 50% retracement, and may chart the next higher trough (HT?) in the series.
China’s official manufacturing PMI posted its highest figure since 2012 in February, helping USOil look past another US stockpile built-up
FXCM’s CFD for Brent, UKOil, and its WTI CFD, USOIL, have both moved into their bullish channel on the H4 time frame. Oil is responding to forecasts for China’s growth.
This week’s economic releases and hawkish remarks by central bank officials, solidify recent market repricing around the Fed’s terminal rate, sending XAU/USD lower
US crude oil inventories rose last week according to the latest data, but prices are supported by strong demand outlook for the year, due to China’s reopening
The precious metal is having a bad month and tests critical tech levels after Tuesday’s higher than expected inflation figures and renewed hawkish commentary by the Fed
Risk Warning: Our service includes products that are traded on margin and carry a risk of losses in excess of your deposited funds. The products may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
Exchange: ${getInstrumentData.exchange}
${getInstrumentData.bid} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.