Bitcoin may be setting up for a significant move



According to Bollinger Band theory, BTCUSD looks to be setting up for a move. Currently, the bands are squeezing (red arrows). Moreover, the Bollinger Width indicator has dropped below 0.1 (red horizontal). This reading suggests a tight compression, which may be the proverbial calm before the storm.

Bollinger Bands suggest a volatility cycle that oscillates between band squeezes and expansions. For example, the previous four times, the Bollinger Width dropped below 0.1 (green dashed verticals), significant volatility increases followed, with the cryptocurrency declining meaningfully.

The theory has little to say about the direction of the break. However, since Bitcoin has generally maintained an inverse relationship to FXCM's USDOLLAR basket, we infer a base case scenario.

Start Trading Bitcoin with Confidence

Get a free practice account today.

The greenback is rampant. Sticky inflation and a tight labour market suggest 75bps in November, which is dollar supportive. If the core CPI print on Thursday surprises, this will catalyse a Bollinger expansion and a BTCUSD swing.

The sticky element of inflation is still resilient, which may keep inflation elevated (our base case). If so, this will act as a drag on Bitcoin.

However, a downside surprise will discount very quickly and support the cryptocurrency.

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.