Bitcoin is front-running the real yield
Source: www.tradingview.com
The top chart shows bitcoin's weekly chart, the bottom chart is the US10-year real rate. Bitcoin is showing strength as real rates moderate.
BTCUSD has charted a higher trough (HT) followed by a higher peak (HP). This is a defined uptrend. As it charted on the weekly time frame, the cryptocurrency's primary trend is up.
It is front running the real rate, which has not completed a trend reversal. I.e. we are still waiting for the 10-year real rater to chart a lower trough. This will only happen once the real rate drops below the black horizontal line on the lower chart. Bitcoin participants expect this.
The emergence of the uptrend coincides with risk asset strength and expected Fed pivot. Much of the fear that surrounded bitcoin and cryptos has evaporated. It is trading at levels prior to the FTX collapse. There is hope the worst is over.
As long as the higher trough, higher peak pattern persists, BTCUSD's uptrend will continue.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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