Bitcoin breakdown gives big downside count
Following our top-down analysis of August 15, we amend the daily pattern to a flag continuation. This is because the cryptocurrency has broken down, and the measured moved gives a target of 14,240. This mark is 12% down from current levels. Measured moves tend to be academic - either hit or not.
However, the left chart shows that the daily stochastic has rolled over and is heading towards the 20 levels (blue arrow). If it drives that low, bitcoin will be under further pressure. Moreover, the longer the stochastic maintains at those levels, the greater the chance of the target being achieved.
Inflation is still a worry, especially the possibility of sticky inflation. If the Fed maintains a tight monetary stance, risk markets will be under pressure as the discount rate declines. This adjustment will include the market for cryptocurrencies. As such, communication on policy remains vitally important.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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