Russell Shor

BAC.us is trading in its bullish area between its upper blue and red bands. Its RSI is trading on the bullish side of 50 (aqua rectangle) and the stochastic is in its bullish quintile (red rectangle). The Bollinger band squeeze (green vertical rectangle) suggests that volatility will expand, and if the indicators maintain, this expansion is likely to be to the upside. For its Q4 earnings, EPS came in at…

Following yesterday's CPI print, showing the slowest inflation in over a year, we consider the US 10-Yr real rate (top chart). December into January, price action resembles a flag (green parallel lines). This is a continuation pattern. The measured move suggests that real rates have a bias to decline.

Headline CPI printed at 6.5% y/y and core inflation came in at 5.7%. Core CPI was 0.3% m/m, which equates to 3.7% y/y, but the series is moving in the right direction. The market is now pricing in a much less aggressive 25bps hike by the Fed for 1 Feb. The shelter index showed an acceleration, coming in at 0.8% m/m, higher than November’s 0.6% m/m. However, with the housing…

The UK100 monthly chart is trading in its bullish channel between its upper blue and red bands. The index is near 7,779, close to its all-time high (ATH) of 7,903.40 (green horizontal line).

Tomorrow sees the Q4 earning season kick off, with several US banks reporting. We examine FXCM’s US Banks basket (US.BANKS), which comprises JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Capital One Financial.

The weekly chart of FXCM’s CHN50 CFD shows a series of higher troughs followed by higher peaks. This is an uptrend. Its RSI is also on the bullish side of 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains this position, the greater the likelihood of further price appreciation.

The USDOLLAR is trading in its bear channel, between the lower blue and red bands, ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release. Its RSI is also on the bearish side of 50.

Australian headline inflation printed at 7.3% y/y. This was higher than the expected 7.2% y/y and more than the last months 6.9% y/y. After two months of declines, food prices pushed higher. Poor weather was much to blame and is largely reflected in the increase in fruit and vegetable prices. Motor fuel was another larger contributor up 5.6% m/m (it was also up 7% m/m for October).

The hourly chart is bullish. EURUSD’s EMAs have crossed up (black ellipse), as has its momentum based stochastic (aqua ellipse). A movement by stochastic to the 80+ area (blue arrow) will denote an underlying positive momentum. Holding in this area will suggest that the shorter-term traders are aligning with the daily bullish participants.

The daily CHN50 chart is trading in its bullish area between the upper blue and red bands. Maintaining the upper channel increases the likelihood of price appreciation. The red Bollinger bands are moving in opposite directions, which shows a growing volatility. The hourly chart shows the stochastic has crossed up (aqua ellipse). A move towards the 80+ region (blue arrow) will suggest a positive momentum. A cross by the trend-following…

The monthly chart of FXCM’s CHN50 CFD is showing value tendencies. It spent 12 months in its bearish channel (notwithstanding a temporary spike in June 2022), between its lower blue and red bands. The current candle is attempting to move into its neutral channel between the blue bands (green vertical rectangle). This is bullish. The monthly RSI still needs to cross above 50 into the indicator’s bullish area (blue arrow).…