Russell Shor

The breakout from the falling wedge pattern coincides with a moderation in inflation in the US. Previous Federal Reserve rate hikes are still working themselves through the transmission mechanism. A possible scenario is that July is the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve’s current tightening cycle. If so, this may provide a tailwind, and the precious metal could end 2023 on a strong note, heading towards the measured move’s…

GER30 Technical Analysis - 17 July 2023

UK inflation is running hotter than US inflation. This has resulted in a fixed income market which is tending to support GBPUSD.

Earlier in the week we tracked the USDOLLAR’s symmetrical triangle pattern, noting that the lower boundary was being tested. FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket has now broken down out of the pattern, close to the apex of the triangle. In conjunction the weekly RSI has dipped below 50, which is on the bearish side of the oscillator. The longer the RSI maintains this position, the greater the likelihood of further downside pressure…

Headline CPI came in at 3%, lower than the previous months 4%, and core CPI was also lower at 4.8% (5.3% - previous). The monthly figures for both headline and core CPI were 0.2% each, which is a remarkable 2.43% annualised.

A judge has ruled against the Federal Trade Commission's plea for a preliminary injunction aimed at blocking Microsoft's (MSFT.us) acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI.us), which is valued at a substantial $69 billion.

A notable aspect of this year's remarkable surge in technology stocks has been the significant influence exerted by the market's most valuable tech companies in terms of market capitalisation. This situation has presented a distinct challenge for the Nasdaq 100 stock index, which monitors the top 100 companies traded on the Nasdaq exchange.

The non-farm employment change published at 209K. This was lower than the 224K expected and lower than the last print at 306K. These are signs of cooling down, but the job market remains overall strong. The Fed minutes were released last Wednesday but did not give us any new information and a 25-bps hike is still likely at the Fed’s next meeting. This week UK jobs data showed high average…

The dollar’s consolidation continues. FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket has drifted sideways in a symmetrical triangle pattern.

The pledge by Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase oil supply cuts is having a positive effect on the UKOil weekly price chart. It suggests a possible change in its primary trend.

NFP live trade recording for 7 July 2023.