Commodities

USOIL Under Pressure as Market Assess Trump’s Victory

Nikos Tzabouras Written by Nikos Tzabouras

USOil Analysis

President-Elect Trump has a pro-oil agenda and has pledged to lift restrictions on oil [1], in a boon for the industry, but this could exacerbate oversupply at a time when demand growth slows. OPEC may be notably more optimistic than the International Energy Agency, but still expects a deceleration this year and the next, downgrading its forecasts for fourth straight month [2]. At the same, the incoming US President has threatened tariffs of up to 60% against China [3], which would harm the economy of the world's top importer of oil and further sap it declining consumption. These unfavorable supply-demand dynamics weigh on USOil this week and make it vulnerable to new 2024 lows towards 63.63.

However, much deeper losses don't look easy under the current environment and USOil could reclaim the EMA200 (black line) that would negate the bearish bias and provide the chance to push for new month highs. OPEC+ delayed once again the unwinding of 2.2 mpbd of voluntary cuts [4], showing commitment to supporting oil prices. Furthermore, President-Elect Trump has vowed to unravel the green energy policies of the current administration, which would slow the shift away from fossil fuels and support oil consumption.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.

As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.

References

1

Retrieved 14 Nov 2024 https://rncplatform.donaldjtrump.com/

2

Retrieved 14 Nov 2024 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

3

Retrieved 14 Nov 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-15/trump-talks-tariffs-immigration-and-the-fed

4

Retrieved 01 May 2026 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7409.htm

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