Commodities

Gold subdued as US-Iran optimism fades

Nikos Tzabouras Written by Nikos Tzabouras

XAU/USD Analysis

President Trump offered hopes for a conclusion to the Middle East conflict on Monday. He noted productive conversations with Iran and postponed military strikes on Iran's power plants and energy facilities for five days, conditional on the success of ongoing meetings [1]. Later in the day he spoke of a "very good chance" the two sides end up with a deal. [2]

These developments removed the immediate escalation risk following a 48-hour ultimatum for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, offering an off-ramp toward an eventual end to the conflict that would allow energy flows to resume. This allowed XAU/USD to rebound on Monday, but optimism is fading today.

Oil prices are rising after Monday's slump, the dollar is regaining its strength and bullion is facing fresh pressure. The US President did not call off military operations altogether, while Iranian officials have dismissed such negotiations according to local media[3]. Oil disruptions continue, inflationary risks linger and markets continue to price out any Fed rate cuts this year while introducing the chances of a hike.

Greenback strength and Fed higher-for-longer prospects sustain an unfavourable backdrop for gold, adding to technical hurdles. XAU/USD is in bear market territory, having lost more than 20% from its record peak, leaving it vulnerable to deeper declines. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not followed prices lower, a divergence that could facilitate a rebound toward the EMA200 and challenge the downside bias.

Besides stoking inflationary pressures, the conflict also creates growth risks amid an already uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Should market attention shift to this theme, bullion could find meaningful support. Gold may be down, but its longer-term drivers are far from over. Central bank buying, de-dollarisation and currency debasement trends may have faded from the headlines, but they remain very much alive.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.

As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.

References

1

Retrieved 24 Mar 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116278232362967212

2

Retrieved 24 Mar 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch

3

Retrieved 03 May 2026 https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/23/3547520/source-dismisses-iran-us-talks-says-trump-has-backed-off

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