Commodities

Oil prices try to maintain momentum after renewed US-Iran tensions

Nikos Tzabouras Written by Nikos Tzabouras

USOIL Analysis

The United States Navy shot down an Iranian unmanned drone in the Arabian Sea, which was described as "acting aggressively" towards the USS Abraham Lincoln, according to US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt [1]. Separately, UKMTO reported suspicious activity in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was hailed on VHF by numerous small armed boats [2]. Reuters reported that, according to sources, the incident involved Iranian gunboats and a US-flagged tanker [3].

These security events raise the geopolitical temperature and resurface fears of oil supply disruptions. The Straits of Hormuz is a critical transit corridor, accounting for 20% of the world's petroleum liquids consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration (IEA). [4]

Meanwhile, US President Trump announced a trade deal with India to lower tariffs to 18% in exchange for New Delhi stopping the purchase of Russian oil [5]. The agreement could reduce economic headwinds and support oil demand, while flow shifts may create regional tightness.

USOil jumped due to the heightened geopolitical premium and easing trade tensions, with the chance to push for new 2026 highs (66.49), amid a broader commodity rebound seen also gold and silver. Weakness in the USDOLLAR, linked to debasement trends, is also supportive. However, crude remains exposed to fresh pressures as supply and demand dynamics remain unfavourable, and a return below the EMA200 would reaffirm the bearish bias.

Despite renewed US-Iran tensions, the US Press Secretary confirmed that talks between the two sides later this week are still on, and President Trump has recently toned down his rhetoric. Absent any major disruptions, prospects of an oil glut linger, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) expecting supply growth to substantially exceed demand this year.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.

As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.

References

1

Retrieved 04 Feb 2026 https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2018750270235431043

2

Retrieved 04 Feb 2026 https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents

3

Retrieved 04 Feb 2026 https://www.reuters.com/world/armed-boats-attempt-intercept-vessel-strait-hormuz-ukmto-says-2026-02-03/

4

Retrieved 04 Feb 2026 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php

5

Retrieved 03 May 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116002095109616255

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