Commodities

Oil prices slide as President Trump tones down his rhetoric on Iran

Nikos Tzabouras Written by Nikos Tzabouras

USOIL Analysis

US President Trump had raised the prospect of another military strike against Iran in recent days to support protesters. However, he has now indicated that he may hold off on such action after being informed by "very important sources on the other side" that "the killing has stopped, and the executions won't take place". When asked about the chances of a military operation, the US President adopted softer language, saying that "we're gonna watch and see what the process is".[1]

The toned-down rhetoric eases fears of supply disruptions and shifts focus back to oversupply prospects. After Maduro's capture, the United States has started marketing Venezuelan oil and "selectively rolling back" sanctions, which could add more crude to a well-supplied market. Moreover, macroeconomic uncertainty and disruptive trade policies pose risks to the global economy and weigh on oil consumption. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a 3 million barrels-per-day increase in supply this year, alongside only an 830 thousand barrels-per-day rise in demand.[2]

The unfavourable fundamental outlook keeps USOil vulnerable to a move back below the EMA200, which would reaffirm the bearish bias and bring the 2025 low back into focus. That said, WTI has scope to extend its rebound as long as it remains above that exponential moving average.

Supply disruption risks have not disappeared, as geopolitical tensions persist and a peace agreement in Ukraine remains elusive. In addition, Venezuela's current output is modest in global terms, and restoring its production capacity is likely to be a time-consuming and difficult undertaking. The CEO of Exxon Mobil illustrated these challenges, calling Venezuela "uninvestable" under current legal and commercial frameworks.[3]

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.

As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.

References

1

Retrieved 15 Jan 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch

2

Retrieved 15 Jan 2026 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2025

3

Retrieved 01 May 2026 https://www.youtube.com/live/iaE8lw8_x30

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