Commodities

Oil prices rise as US-Iran Tensions escalate

Nikos Tzabouras Written by Nikos Tzabouras

USOIL analysis

The Middle East conflict has entered its fourth week with no signs of an off-ramp, as both sides escalate their rhetoric. President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or face the obliteration of the country's power plants [1]. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned of retaliatory strikes on energy facilities throughout the region [2], while also threatening attacks on financial entities that fund the US operations [3].

These fresh threats heighten fears of lingering supply disruptions, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut and oil facilities across the Middle East have been taking hits. IEA Director Fatih Birol spoke of severe damage to more than forty energy assets in the region, according to Bloomberg. [4]

The continuation of the war and the relevant supply disruptions can tighten to the oil market and alter previously unfavourable fundamentals, supporting the case for further USOil gains. However, the commodity is relatively tame today there remains scope for a pullback toward the EMA200.

Should oil infrastructure not face more long-lasting damage, and should the Strait reopen, markets could normalise relatively quickly. A well-supplied market has room to withstand shocks and the IEA still expects production to outstrip demand this year [5]. Moreover, President Trump has said he would consider "winding down" military operations [6], while both sides have reasons to de-escalate. The spike in oil prices and broader geopolitical uncertainty could also hurt the global economy and lead to demand destruction.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.

As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.

References

1

Retrieved 23 Mar 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116269822349947644

2

Retrieved 23 Mar 2026 https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2035665493307130044

3

Retrieved 23 Mar 2026 https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2035776169656676675

4

Retrieved 23 Mar 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-23/over-40-middle-east-energy-assets-severely-damaged-iea-says

5

Retrieved 23 Mar 2026 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026

6

Retrieved 03 May 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116263563453969628

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