China holds the key on Nvidia’s H200 approval

The U.S. has cleared Nvidia to sell its H200 chips into China under strict conditions — prioritising domestic supply and tighter security checks — but deliveries are paused as Beijing decides whether to allow them in. Chinese customs officials have reportedly cautioned against purchases, leaving roughly $30 bn of estimated demand in limbo. Nvidia would surrender a 25% revenue cut to Washington under the deal. Markets barely reacted, waiting for clarity from China.

For the setup to improve, the RSI needs to move above 50 and Nvidia's EMAs need to establish a bullish crossover. Achieving this soon would confirm a higher trough and create a base for the next leg up. A break above the $194 resistance would then confirm a higher peak and establish the foundations of a new uptrend.