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  • US10 Yr Yields Turning Bullish Into 2022

    The top chart shows the weekly US10 Yr. treasury. We have added moving averages as a measuring mechanism for yield appreciation. The green ellipse indicates that the quicker green moving average is near to crossing above the slower orange moving average. If this happens, and angle and separation develop, the odds favour further appreciation in the rate. The blue dashed vertical marks the time of the previous bullish cross (aqua…

  • Inflation Print Gives Support to USDOLLAR

    Initial jobless claims came in at 205K, slighter higher than the 200K expected, and were constant week over week. At the same time, core durable goods and core PCE were released, with both numbers beating consensus. Core durable goods m/m printed at 0.8% (0.6% - forecast) and core PCE m/m was 0.5% (0.4% - forecast). The dollar has been under pressure this week, but these provided some support. FXCM's USDOLLAR…

  • USDOLLAR’s Low Volatility May Be The “Calm Before The Storm”

    USDOLLAR Trading Range FXCM's USDOLLAR basket has been moving sideways since the end of November (blue rectangle). Moving averages are trend-following indicators and are inclined to give whipsaw signals when the price is ranging (aqua ellipses). We note that the quicker green moving average has just crossed above the intermediate orange moving average (blue arrow). This aligns the moving averages bullishly, and if they develop angle and separation will be…

  • Short-Term USDOLLAR/Gold Relative Strength Analysis

    The top chart below shows the H4 relative strength ratio between FXCM's USDOLLAR basket and gold (XAUUSD). The ratio started to fall last week Wednesday (blue dashed vertical). I.e., the greenback was declining against the precious metal. The catalyst here was the spread of the omicron variant, and gold's regard as a safe haven. We do note that the EMAs and stochastic are rolling over (red ellipses), which may suggest…

  • Turkish Systemic Risk Likely Higher After “Deposit Guarantee” Announcement

    The Turkish lira strengthened by as much as 15% after President Erdogan announced a plan to guarantee local deposits against market volatility. Accordingly, the government will pay the difference between the value of savings in lira and equivalent dollar deposits. The market has been heavily short lira, and the jump in value is likely a short squeeze. Moreover, the weekly chart's overbought condition has now been normalised (blue rectangle). The…


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