Russell Shor

FXCM's US30 CFD has charted a bullish 1-2-3 pattern on the weekly scale. It seems to be in the midst of its next impulse move. To this end, we note that the stochastic has pushed into the upper quintile (blue arrow). The longer it stays in this region, the greater the chances of an impulse swing.

The oil daily chart has moved from its weak area, between the lower blue and red bands, into its neutral zone, between the blue bands (vertical green rectangle). This activity is a relative movement towards strength.

The EURUSD continues to trade in its bullish channel (between the upper blue and red bands) on its daily time frame. However, the hourly chart does show a pullback is in effect, with the EMAs and stochastic both in bear mode. There is a triple confluence of support at the central pivot - the 50% Fibonacci level and price support overlap. Thus, this may be a level that is attractive…

Whilst the core PCE came in under expectations, we are cautious. On Friday, wage inflation printed 0.6% MoM, double the monthly forecast of 0.3% MoM. This surprise means that average hourly earnings are up 5.1% YoY compared to last month's 4.9%.

The NAS100 remains positioned in its bullish channel, between the upper blue and red bands. The market responded positively to Fed Chair Powell's Brooking Institution delivery, and a long blue candle was charted two days ago (green vertical rectangle).

The EURUSD has pushed higher into the daily chart's bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. The hourly chart shows bullish developments too. Its trend-following EMAs have developed angle and separation to the upside, and the stochastic is looking to cross up (black ellipses). If the stochastic pushes above 80 and maintains, an underlying bullish momentum will be building, which may take EURUSD passed its R2 pivot level.

The market is anticipating that the current hiking cycle is reaching its peak, with the risk-on sentiment more prevalent since the beginning of October. This is not surprising given the forward-looking nature of the markets.

Yesterday at the Brookings Institution, Fed Chair Powell confirmed the slowing of policy tightening. The 14 December hike has close to an 82% probability of 50bps as opposed to 18% for 75bps. However, the Fed Chair suggested a higher terminal rate than anticipated.

Fed Chair Powell is due to speak about the economy, inflation and employment at the Brookings Institution at 6:30 pm GMT. He will likely take the opportunity to reiterate the slowing of rate hikes to 50bps after four 75bps increases. However, he is also likely also to emphasise the fight against inflation. A tighter policy will continue until the Fed has managed to reign inflation in

The daily NAS100 has slipped from its bullish area, between the upper blue and red bands, to neutral, between the blue bands (green rectangle). On a relative basis, this suggests weakness. The hourly chart shows that the trend-following EMAs and the momentum-based stochastic have turned negative (black ellipses). If the EMAs develop angle and separation to the downside and the stochastic makes its way to the 20- levels, a bearish…

As the real rate appreciated, gold declined (green trendlines). This trend then morphed into a sideways pattern (blue-shaded area). The cc is currently reading a robust -79%, implying a meaningful inverse relationship between the two instruments.