US Market

Chair Powell opened the door to an acceleration in the pace of tightening during his two-day Congress testimony, but the tech-heavy index shows resiliency as market now brace for Friday’s jobs report

The 2s-10s yield curve has been inverted for 9-months and is currently at -107 bps. The last time the yield curve was this far into inversion territory was in the early 1980s. An inverted yield curve often forewarns of an economic recession, as it suggests that investors expect short-term interest rates to fall, and normalise the curve. This can be a signal that the economy is headed for a downturn.

Watch today’s US Open for insights on the dovish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia, persistent hawkish commentary by ECB officials and more, as markets brace for Fed Chair Powell’s Congress testimony

Regarding the weekly time frame, the NAS100 has charted a higher trough, followed by a higher peak. This is an uptrend. The index has pulled back over the past weeks but now finds itself at resistance turned support.

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the recent hotter than expected US PCE inflation, the EU/UK trade agreement over Northern Ireland and more

The daily NAS100 (left) has a weak bias. It is trading in its bearish channel between the lower blue and red bands. Also, its underlying momentum is to the downside; its stochastic has dropped below 20. The longer it stays there, the greater the prospects for lower prices.

Yesterday’s GDP data show that the US economy decelerated at a higher pace than previously reported. Q4 GDP was revised to 2.7%, which is down from the previously reported number of 2.9% and lower than Q3’s 3.2%. The revision is due to lower consumer spending and exports, with personal consumption expenditure up 1.4% compared with the prior forecast of 2.1%.

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on Nvidia’s AI-boosted forward guidance, the FOMC minutes and yesterday’s RBNZ policy decision

Wednesday’s accounts from the Fed’s last meeting confirmed the higher-for-longer narrative, but the tech-heavy index finds support, with the help of encouraging forward guidance by Nvidia

The FOMC minutes show that the Fed sees a slowing of inflation, which may support a peak in the federal funds rate this year. However, the minutes were penned before notable data. January’s jobs report was strong, showing an increase of 517,000 in nonfarm payrolls. Inflation was also higher than consensus, with the headline CPI printing at 0.5% m/m.

Markets fell yesterday, with the US30 declining 1.67% on the day. The decline shows concern regarding the Fed’s rate hiking path, with the “higher for longer” paradigm pricing in, as the flash PMIs came in hotter than expected.