BTC/USD Loses Around 50% from its November Peak, in a Bad Day for Cryptos

BTC/USD Analysis

The Cryptocurrency makes a poor start to the week, after five consecutive negative ones, and loses around 50% from its all-time highs in November 2021 (69,023). Persistent US Dollar strength in a backdrop of aggressive monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve and broader risk-aversion, are two of the main factors behind Bitcoin's demise.

The US Fed delivered a 50 basis points interest rate hike on Wednesday to combat high inflation, hinted at more such moves over the next couple of meetings and announced a plan to reduce its balance sheet, starting from June. [1]

The war in Ukraine remains a source of risk-aversion, as markets expect Mr Putin's address today, while the G-7 countries announced fresh support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia, including a commitment to phase-out oil imports [2]. Furthermore, markets continue to monitor the Covid-19 situation in China, after the country stressed the importance of adhering to the zero-Covid policy. [3]

BTC/USD flirts with new 2022 lows (32,939), which would make it vulnerable to 30,874, but bears may not yet be ready to challenge those of 2021 (28,780-27,892)

Despite today's plunge, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals oversold levels and this can give the Cryptocurrency the chance to react and reclaim 35,000, although a catalyst will likely be required for a recovery beyond 37,147.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 09 May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20220504.htm

2

Retrieved 09 May 2022 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/08/g7-leaders-statement-2/

3

Retrieved 16 May 2022 https://english.www.gov.cn/news/topnews/202205/06/content_WS62747913c6d02e533532a4de.html

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