The cryptocurrency had risen to all-time highs in November (69,023.80), but ran a three month-losing streak that led to a poor start to the current year. In February however, it halted the negative run and extends the rebound during the current month, with gains of around 13%, covering the January decline.
After two profitable weeks, the current one begins with a jump higher and above the 200Days EMA and an effort to surpass key 38.2% Fibonacci of the decline from the November Highs to January Lows, at 46,723.
Daily closes above this threshold could open the door for further recovery towards the 50% level (50,981), but it may be early for conquering this level and looking even further.
BTC/USD has made significant progress since February, but the move seems overextended, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking above the 70 mark. Its previous visits above this level had sparked selling pressure.
As such, the crypto is vulnerable to a slide back toward mid-44,000s, but the broader 42,500-40,500 region provides strong support, as it contains the 200H4 EMA, the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the ascending trend-line form last month's lows.
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.