Bitcoin was scheduled to undergo a hard fork, a permanent change in its protocol, on or around 16 November 2017. Although no one was certain what exactly would occur, many expected that the event would split bitcoin’s blockchain in two, creating two separate chains with distinct digital tokens.1)Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://www.coindesk.com/split-no-split-bitcoin-miners-see-no-certainty-segwit2x-fork/ Further, if the blockchain is split, it is impossible to know in advance how much hashing power each separate chain will obtain, making the viability of each blockchain—and its digital token—uncertain.

Should this potential network split occur at some point, and the new SegWit2x chain draws significant mining power, this could leave the legacy bitcoin blockchain in a less secure state. Miners, whose payment for processing transaction depends on the value of the coins they receive, could easily support the blockchain whose corresponding token is more valuable at the time.

The value of such coins could change very quickly, providing a highly unknown situation for all those involved with bitcoin.

The aforementioned plans came to a halt as of 8 November 2017, when those pushing for the implementation of the hard fork suspended their plans. They also released the following statement:

“Our goal has always been a smooth upgrade for Bitcoin. Although we strongly believe in the need for a larger blocksize, there is something we believe is even more important: keeping the community together. Unfortunately, it is clear that we have not built sufficient consensus for a clean blocksize upgrade at this time. Continuing on the current path could divide the community and be a setback to Bitcoin’s growth. This was never the goal of Segwit2x.”2)Retrieved 8 November 2017 https://medium.com/@OneMorePeter/onwards-all-in-on-segwit-9e7cb3faa73d

What Is SegWit2x?

SegWit2x was a solution designed to increase the bitcoin network’s capacity for processing transactions.3)Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://support.gdax.com/customer/portal/articles/2893011-bitcoin-segwit2x-fork-faq This proposed solution involves the following:

  • Implementing Segregated Witness (SegWit), which is an upgrade that would allow blocks of the same size to hold more transactions.
  • Increasing the size of blocks in bitcoin’s blockchain.4)Retrieved 4 November 2017 http://fortune.com/2017/11/03/bitcoin-segwit2x/

SegWit2x, which was publicly announced in May 2017,5)Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77 obtained the support it needed for approval in June.6)Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://cointelegraph.com/news/segwait-is-over-bitcoin-network-shows-80-percent-support-for-segwit2x For SegWit2x to be approved, miners holding 80% of the network hash rate needed to “signal for” (show their support for) the measure.

Since then, the bitcoin network has implemented SegWit, helping reduce some of the pressure it was experiencing by decreasing the size of individual transactions that are fit into blocks.7)Retrieved 4 November 2017 http://fortune.com/2017/11/03/bitcoin-segwit2x/ Once the hard fork takes place, each block will be able to fit twice as many transactions as it did before the fork.

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What Is The Controversy?

There is significant controversy surrounding the upcoming hard fork. Certain developers, specifically the ones who maintain bitcoin core, have come out against SegWit2x.8)Retrieved 4 November 2017 http://fortune.com/2017/11/03/bitcoin-segwit2x/ In addition, some public figures, including litecoin creator Charlie Lee9)Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://cointelegraph.com/news/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-publicly-opposes-segwit2x and Blockstream CEO Adam Back10)Retrieved 4 November 2017 http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/10/07/blockstream-loudly-segwit2x, have vocally criticised the measure.

Many critics have complained that SegWit2x draws its support from companies instead of users and developers.11)Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://cointelegraph.com/news/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-publicly-opposes-segwit2x When Digital Currency Group announced the SegWit2x agreement in May, more than 50 companies had signed on to support the proposal.12)Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77

The proposal failed to gain the support of many users and developers, resulting in most of the bitcoin community opposing the solution.13)Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://cointelegraph.com/news/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-publicly-opposes-segwit2x User communities, including the Seoul Bitcoin and Bitcoin Munich Meetup groups, issued public statements expressing their opposition to the hard fork.14)Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/these-international-bitcoin-communities-are-rejecting-segwit2x/

While some of these user communities expressed their concerns about technical aspects of SegWit2x, one group took a far more confrontational approach. A group representing both Brazilian and Argentinian users and companies voiced concerns in mid-October about how the SegWit2x agreement came to exist in the first place.

“The very nature of an ‘agreement’ between a few parties in a decentralised consensus protocol can be interpreted as an aggression against the network,” the statement read.15)Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/these-international-bitcoin-communities-are-rejecting-segwit2x/

Potential Benefits For Investors To Consider

While some are concerned about the potential drawbacks of a network split, others realise that such an event could provide bitcoin investors with more digital currency. Should bitcoin’s existing blockchain become two blockchains, investors holding the digital currency at the time of the split will have digital tokens for each individual chain.16)Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/#6f4543003d3c

Bitcoin investors have enjoyed similar windfalls before. When bitcoin cash (a fork of legacy bitcoin that has 8MB blocks instead of 1MB blocks) emerged in August 2017, it quickly became one of the three largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation (market cap).17)Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/cbovaird/2017/08/02/bitcoin-cash-becomes-a-top-3-cryptocurrency/#340d9831154d In less than 24 hours, its total market cap surpassed US$8 billion.

Investors received a similar experience from bitcoin gold, a digital currency that was created with the goal of “democratising” bitcoin by making it possible for a wider group of people to mine the digital currency.18)Retrieved 6 November 2017 http://fortune.com/2017/10/25/bitcoin-gold-fork-cash/ While bitcoin miners use specialised hardware to process transactions, bitcoin gold can be mined using graphics processing units (GPU) that are available to a broad swath of people.

Should the bitcoin network split in two, it’s unclear which blockchain will be referred to as bitcoin.19)Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/#178a76a33d3c While some investors may want to sell some of their tokens shortly after the split, this could be a dangerous gamble, as they may end up selling the digital currency that ends up being the “true” bitcoin.

“At the last fork, it was very clear which fork was the minority chain,” stated Olaf Carlson-Wee, who was the first Coinbase employee and now serves as hedge fund Polychain Capital’s founder and CEO.20)Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/#178a76a33d3c “With this fork, there is a battle over bitcoin—the name and brand and which chain is the true bitcoin. And no one is backing down.”

Summary

No one knows exactly what this hard fork would look like after it has taken place. Many believe that the bitcoin network will split into two separate blockchains, but it remains to be seen what their names will be.

Should bitcoin become two separate digital currencies, it is impossible to tell ahead of time how these tokens will perform in terms of future price movements. If the bitcoin network splits, one of the resulting blockchains could potentially draw the majority of hashing power, leaving the other digital token vulnerable to attack.

Before purchasing or speculating on bitcoin, investors can benefit significantly from conducting due diligence. They should also keep in mind that risk is inherent to investment, so they shouldn’t invest any money they cannot afford to lose.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. FXCM will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

FXCM does not endorse cryptocurrency. The information provided herein is for educational purposes only.

References   [ + ]

1. Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://www.coindesk.com/split-no-split-bitcoin-miners-see-no-certainty-segwit2x-fork/
2. Retrieved 8 November 2017 https://medium.com/@OneMorePeter/onwards-all-in-on-segwit-9e7cb3faa73d
3. Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://support.gdax.com/customer/portal/articles/2893011-bitcoin-segwit2x-fork-faq
4, 7, 8. Retrieved 4 November 2017 http://fortune.com/2017/11/03/bitcoin-segwit2x/
5, 12. Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77
6. Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://cointelegraph.com/news/segwait-is-over-bitcoin-network-shows-80-percent-support-for-segwit2x
9, 11. Retrieved 4 November 2017 https://cointelegraph.com/news/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-publicly-opposes-segwit2x
10. Retrieved 4 November 2017 http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/10/07/blockstream-loudly-segwit2x
13. Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://cointelegraph.com/news/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-publicly-opposes-segwit2x
14, 15. Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/these-international-bitcoin-communities-are-rejecting-segwit2x/
16. Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/#6f4543003d3c
17. Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/cbovaird/2017/08/02/bitcoin-cash-becomes-a-top-3-cryptocurrency/#340d9831154d
18. Retrieved 6 November 2017 http://fortune.com/2017/10/25/bitcoin-gold-fork-cash/
19, 20. Retrieved 6 November 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/#178a76a33d3c