NZD/USD Treads Water after NZ Unemployment & Ahead of the US Fed

NZD/USD Analysis

Unemployment in New Zealand ticked up 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022, with NZD/USD reacting negatively initially. However, the rate remains close to historic lows, while wages increased 4.1% year-over-year - the biggest annual rise since 1992 when the series began [1]. Last week's data showed that headline CPI inflation stabilized at 7.2% in the same period, just off its three-decades high (7.3%) and the economy grew by very strong 6.4% y/y in the third quarter.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sees a short period of contraction as likely, but also expects inflation to peak higher, at 7.5% according to the November projections [2]. Officials had then raised rates by a historically large 75 basis points, bringing the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Despite prospects of an economic downturn, policy makers stayed on their hawkish path, raising their OCR projections, expecting interest rates to go as high as 5.5%.

All eyes are now on the US Fed, which is widely expected to downshift again, with an 0.25% rate increase. The bank has maintained its hawkish stance though and commitment to bring inflation down, while expecting median terminal rate of 5.1% - higher than market expectations.[3]. It is quite likely that Chair Powell will stay the course and push back against optimism for a pivot and as such, the policy statement and the press conference will be closely watched.

The trajectory of NZD/USD will be determined by the Fed outcome, but form a technical prospective there is risk for a breach of the EMA200, as it faces difficulties this week. Daily closes below this level would bring last month's lows in the spotlight (0.6190), but the daily Ichimoku Cloud can provide support.

Despite recent weakness, NZD/USD comes from a strong month and above the EMA200, immediate bias is on the upside. As such, bulls can push for higher highs, but we are cautious at this stage for sustained advance past 0.6675.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.



Consultado el 01 Feb 2023


Consultado el 01 Feb 2023


Consultado el 24 Feb 2024

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Intercambio: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Estos materiales constituyen comunicaciones de marketing y no tienen en cuenta sus circunstancias personales, experiencia de inversión o situación financiera actual. El contenido es ofrecido como un comentario general del mercado y no debe interpretarse como asesoramiento alguno de inversión, recomendación de inversión y/o solicitud de transacciones de inversión. Esta comunicación de mercado no implica ni le impone una obligación para realizar una transacción de inversión y/o comprar productos o servicios de inversión. Estos materiales no han sido preparados de conformidad con los requisitos legales diseñados para promover la independencia de la investigación de inversiones y no están sujetos a ninguna prohibición de negociación antes de la difusión de la investigación de inversiones.
FXCM, y cualquiera de sus Filiales, no serán de ninguna manera responsables ante usted por inexactitudes, errores u omisiones, independientemente de la causa, en el contenido de estos materiales, o por cualquier daño (ya sea directo o indirecto) que pueda surgir del uso de dichos materiales, servicios y su contenido. En consecuencia, cualquier persona que actúe sobre ellos lo hace bajo su propio riesgo. Asegúrese de leer y comprender nuestra cláusula completa de exención de responsabilidad y responsabilidad con respecto a la información anterior, a la que se puede acceder aquí.

Resultados Pasados: Los resultados pasados no son indicadores de resultados futuros.